Colonel John rises to the top

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/11/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Move over Big Brown and Pyro. There's a Colonel on the loose ready to do battle on the first Saturday in May. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby by only a half-length, but the manner in which he won was extremely impressive.

The son of Tiznow ran his final three-eighths of a mile in an astonishing 35 1/5 seconds, including a 12 second final furlong, to stamp himself as a major player in the Kentucky Derby.

Colonel John looked like a beaten horse as he dropped back to ninth as the field approached the far turn, but rallied with powerful strides making up seven and one-half lengths in the final three furlongs to nail down the win. He certainly has the breeding to get the 1 , but jockey Corey Nakatani still pushed him another eighth of a mile after the race was over to get him acclimated to the Derby distance.

His only question mark is a valid one, and that's a surface issue. For all Colonel John has done - four wins and two seconds in six starts - he has yet to race on dirt, since all three southern California tracks are run on synthetic surfaces.

Trainer Eoin Harty has already mapped out his pre-Derby regimen, which is two workouts at Santa Anita, followed by just one at Churchill Downs, and a lot of discussion will be raised in the media if that final work isn't up to snuff. But given the fact he's by Tiznow, who won two Breeders' Cup Classics, and out of a Turkoman mare, the odds of him improving on dirt is very likely.

As for the rest of the field, second-place finisher Bob Black Jack may or may not go to Kentucky, It all depends upon how he fares in training next week. Even if the six-furlong world-record holder is among the final 20 in the gate on the first Saturday in May, it's doubtful he will have any chance to win based on his style of running and his pedigree.

The same could be said for El Gato Malo. Trainer Craig Dollase is up in the air concerning a trek to Louisville after the post-time favorite ran a dismal fifth, beaten by over five lengths. His breeding suggests the 10 furlongs of the Derby will be out of his reach, so Dollase would be wise to keep him in California rather than shipping him eastward to Churchill Downs.

Coast Guard, who ran third, will not race in Kentucky, while fourth-place finisher Yankee Bravo may be a victim of the graded earnings list. As of Friday, April 11, the son of Yankee Gentleman is in 43rd place with $105,000. As mentioned, only 20 horses can enter, and many colts ahead of him will not even consider going to the Derby, but he will still need a ton of defections in order to have a chance to run.

WOOD MEMORIAL

Tale of Ekati ran down favored War Pass to win the 84th running of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The two-year-old champ did rebound from his horrible performance in the Tampa Bay Derby to finish second, beaten by less than a length, but he ran his final three furlongs in a horrid 41 seconds, not to mention his last 1/8 of a mile in 14 seconds flat.

It's also fair to say that Tale of Ekati has a lot to overcome before being crowned a Kentucky Derby champion. The Barclay Tagg-trained colt did absolutely nothing but pass a tiring miler inside the final furlong.

It's also important to note that the final six winners on the card were no worse than third at any point in their races, including the winner of the only other two-turn race, Temporary Saint, in the Excelsior Handicap run 32 minutes prior to the Wood. That horse ran his final three furlongs in 37 2/5, a marked difference even from Tale of Ekati's 40 1/5.

Both of the top two finishers will push forward to Kentucky, along with Court Vision. Making only his second start of the year, the slow-footed closer rallied for third, but given the fast early fractions, he should have been able to pass both Tale of Ekati and War Pass. Still, the way the track was playing, there is room for improvement on May 3.

ILLINOIS DERBY

Hawthorne was another racetrack where it was impossible to come from off the pace to earn the victory this past Saturday. The four winners prior to the Illinois Derby were all either on the lead or less than one-length behind the leader at the half.

Still, trainer Louie Roussel must be given credit for capturing the race with Recapturetheglory, who had won only one of five previous endeavors. The son of Cherokee Run controlled the race from the outset with splits of 24, 48 3/5 and 1:12 4/5, and the only positional change for the entire field in the nine furlong event came when Instill passed Real Appeal at the top of the stretch for sixth place.

It is highly doubtful Recapturetheglory will hit the board in the Kentucky Derby since his victory was tainted by how the track was playing. In addition, one can't write off the two favorites, who both finished out of the money.

Denis of Cork came into the race under questionable handling by his trainer, David Carroll. Instead of running in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, Carroll decided to give his undefeated colt only one prep in order not to "bounce" at Churchill Downs.

Well, not only did the track bias limit his chance of victory, he almost fell to his knees racing in tight quarters approaching the clubhouse turn. He's still a longshot to win the Derby, but at least he has the possibility of bouncing in the right direction on May 3.

No excuses can be made for Atoned except for trying to close on the speed- favoring surface. On the other hand, it would be unwise to toss him out of any exotic wagering if he somehow makes it to Kentucky despite being 34th on the graded earnings list.

One other note, third-place finisher Z Humor is a definite for the "Run for the Roses."

THIS WEEK'S PREPS

The Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will go a long way in determining not only which horses from both events will gain tickets to Louisville, but also which colts waiting in limbo on the proverbial "earnings bubble" will make it as well.

Pyro, who will have his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Blue Grass, will be matched up against a well-stocked field, including Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and Monba.

The Louisiana Derby victor will be stretching out to 1 1/8 for the first time in his career, but the extra 1/16th of a mile shouldn't pose much of a problem. On the other hand, one has to wonder how tightly wound Steve Asmussen will have him with the Kentucky Derby just three weeks away. And, since it's extremely likely he'll be favored in this event, it's best not to use him on top in any exotic wagering.

Since this race will be run on Polytrack instead of dirt, it might not be a true indication of how these very same horses might run at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Visionaire, Cool Coal Man and Big Truck have yet to race on this surface, so all three will be of unknown quality as the field hits this track.

One horse that might have a bit of an edge is Monba. Todd Pletcher's charge hasn't run since finishing last, beaten almost 40 lengths in the Fountain of Youth in late February, but he did win his first ever start on this racetrack last year. In addition, his fourth-place finish in the Cash Call Futurity over at Hollywood last December was one of the more impressive races run this past winter.

The son of Maria's Mon is coming off a solid four-furlong workout at Keeneland back on April 6 (47 1/5 - breezing) so he obviously likes this track. Plus, of all the major contenders in this race, he is the only one that needs a first- or second-place finish to increase his graded earnings to vie for a spot in the Kentucky Derby.

With a host of others expected to take all the action, go with Monba to win, as well as a three-horse exacta box with Visionaire and Pyro.

The Arkansas Derby is the exact opposite of the Blue Grass, as almost all the key contenders need a huge boost in earnings to make the "Run for the Roses." In addition, there is really no standout, as any one of 10 horses could cross the wire first.

The most interesting colt to watch is Gayego. Sired by sprinter Gilded Time out of a Lost Code mare, it's highly doubtful he'll be able to stretch his speed past nine furlongs, but he did run exceedingly well in the San Felipe, losing to Georgie Boy by less than one length. Nonetheless, he's never run on dirt, as all four of his starts have come in Southern California. The 5-2 morning line favorite could be a solid horse to bet against, especially with a couple of other speedsters to deal with on the front end in Victory Pete and My Pal Charlie.

Second choice on the morning line is Z Fortune. Another in Steve Asmussen's deep stable, the son of Siphon threw an unexplained clunker into the mix in his last start at Oaklawn, finishing fifth, beaten almost 10 lengths as the 7-10 favorite in the Rebel. Z Fortune came up empty when asked to pick up the pace through the stretch, but Garrett Gomez had him five wide almost the entire race, something new jockey Robby Albarado will certainly hope to change.

Another contender is King's Silver Son. Steve Asmussen also trains this colt, who has just one win in seven starts, but with five seconds, including one in the Rebel. His come-from-behind style should set him up nicely to pick up the pieces if Z Fortune fails to fire one more time.

Take Z Fortune to win and box him with King's Silver Son for the exacta.

THE TOP 10 LIST WITH FINAL POOL 3 ODDS

It's interesting to note that eight of the 23 horses in "Pool 3" were in the field in "Pool 2," including Big Brown. Those who grabbed the generous 6-1 field odds in the middle Future Wager must be loving life these days.

Colonel John zoomed to the top off his ultra-impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby. With just three weeks to go, here is the updated top 10 list heading into this final key weekend of action:

1) Colonel John, 6-1; 2) Pyro, 5-1; 3) Visionaire, 19-1; 4) Big Brown, 3-1; 5) Denis of Cork, 26-1; 6) Yankee Bravo, 61-1; 7) Court Vision, 19-1; 8) Monba, 14-1, field; 9) Tale of Ekati, 18-1; 10) War Pass, 14-1