Eight possible to face Big Brown in Preakness Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/05/2008 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The overpowering performance by Big Brown in Saturday's 134th Kentucky Derby has apparently scared away all but one his Run for the Roses rivals from the upcoming Preakness Stakes.

Illinois Derby champ Recapturetheglory is the only Derby finisher that might come back to challenge Big Brown on May 17. Trained by co-owner Louie Roussel, Recapturetheglory finished fifth to Big Brown at Churchill Downs. Roussel said that a final decision could be made Monday or Tuesday.

"We are getting in the car and either driving eight to 10 hours to Baltimore or New Orleans," said Roussel. Roussel and partner Ronnie Lamarque sent out Risen Star in 1988 to win the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

Among the other possible starters for the Preakness are Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar, El Gato Malo who was the defeated favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, Count Fleet Stakes champ Giant Moon, Harlem Rocker winner of the Withers Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes third place finisher Kentucky Bear, Stevil who was fourth in the Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby third place finisher Tres Borrachos and California Derby champ Yankee Bravo.

Big Brown will train at Churchill Downs for the Preakness and is expected to arrive at Pimlico Race Course on Wednesday, May 14. The colt can become the seventh Kentucky Derby winner in the last 12 years to capture the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown.

"I like our chances because we have the best horse," said trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. "I am going to see a bunch of friends but I am going there with a horse that can win the race."

Dutrow is a Maryland native whose father Dickie Dutrow was one of the leading trainers in Maryland in the 1970's. The elder Dutrow captured four training titles at Pimlico during that decade.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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