Kentucky Derby preps provide few clues

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/15/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The favorite in the Santa Anita Derby finished fifth. The favorite in the Wood Memorial got edged at the wire. The favorite in the Illinois Derby finished fifth. The favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes finished 10th.

Of the final six major prep races for the Kentucky Derby this year only two favorites hit the wire the first. Big Brown went wire to wire in the Florida Derby and Gayego pressed the pace before taking the Arkansas Derby.

Of the results the most disappointing was Pyro never running in the Blue Grass Stakes and jogging under the wire 10th. Most railbirds are throwing the race out because it was Pyro's first start on an artificial surface.

"I asked him for run around the turn to try and set myself up pretty good and I didn't get the response I was hoping for," said Pyro's jockey Shaun Bridgmohan. "I realized on the turn that it just wasn't going to be his day."

In the Santa Anita Derby second choice Colonel John put on a rally down the stretch to nip Bob Black Jack for the win. The favorite El Gato Malo never posed a threat, suprising jockey David Flores.

"Some days they don't have it, and this was one of those days," noted Flores. "When they go to the next level, they have to prove that they're the right horse, but he didn't have it today. Maybe he bled. I don't know. I have no idea. The horse was traveling real nice. I got him out with perfect timing at the three-eighths. I let him move up just a little bit. He just didn't have the extra kick that I was expecting from him."

Denis of Cork was another favorite that did not respond when asked by his jockey. A victory in the Illinois Derby would have put Denis of Cork among the favorites for this year's Run for the Roses,

"We had a good trip and when I asked him at the 3/8ths pole," jockey Julien Leparoux said. "I thought he was ready to go. He kept going but there was no kick to get there."

In the Wood Memorial, War Pass needed a win in convincing fashion to put him at the top of the Kentucky Derby contenders list. He set the pace, but tired late when Tale of Ekati caught him at the wire.

"It's sad that we didn't win because he is a champion," said Nick Zito, trainer of War Pass. "It would have been wonderful to win the Wood Memorial. I'm still glad with the way he ran, he wasn't up the track. There were no excuses."

A speed horse like War Pass does not appear to have the ability to go the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby.

Big Brown's eye opening win in the Florida Derby has him the current favorite for the Run for the Roses.

"We've got a Kentucky Derby contender," Big Brown's trainer Rick Dutrow exclaimed. "It's a long way off, and a lot of things have to happen right, but I expected him to run just like what we saw. All I have to do is stay out of his way. I let him do what he wants."

"He's a major talent," jockey Kent Desormeaux said about Big Borwn, "possibly the best horse I've ridden. I thought that after the first time I rode him. I'd have to say that he's my (Kentucky) Derby horse."

Jockey Mike Smith is on his way back to Churchill Downs with Arkansas Derby champ Gayego. Smith knows his way to the winner's circle at the Louisville track. Three years ago he guided Giacomo to victory in the Run for the Roses.

Smith feels he has a legitimate contender in Gayego.

"My horse showed he could handle the dirt," Smith said, "and he also showed me that he will have no problem getting the 1 1/4 miles in Louisville."

Expect 20 three-year-olds to start in the 134th Kentucky Derby. One of those starters might be a filly. Other than that expect the unexpected on the first Saturday in May.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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