Red Sox, Blue Jays to close out first half with rubber match

Baseball Betting Lines

07/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays close out a three- game weekend set in American League East action from the Rogers Centre, with the rubber match to take place this afternoon.

Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka will be on the mound for the road team today. He had a streak of six straight games in which he had given up three or fewer earned runs halted on Monday by Tampa Bay, which touched up the Japanese star for four earned runs on eight hits in five innings of action. Matsuzaka is now 5-3 with a 4.71 ERA this season.

The Red Sox hurler pitched an outstanding game against Toronto on May 11 of this season and is 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA lifetime against the Blue Jays.

Slated to oppose Matsuzaka today is Jesse Litsch, who is 0-3 with a 7.30 ERA this season. The fact that Litsch has only struck out seven batters in 24 2/3 innings of work screams "contact pitcher", and he is averaged less than five innings per start. On Tuesday, the righty was touched for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against Minnesota and was fortunate to escape with a no- decision.

Litsch has yet to face Boston this season, but he is an impressive 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox.

On Saturday, Alex Gonzalez hit a two-run homer and added an RBI double as the Blue Jays defeated Boston, 9-5, in the middle installment of this set.

Jose Bautista blasted his MLB-best 24th home run of the season -- a solo shot in the eighth inning -- for the Blue Jays, who had dropped seven home games in a row to the Red Sox prior to last night's outcome.

Shawn Camp (3-1) gained the win after striking out three batters in 1 2/3 scoreless innings in relief of Jays starter Brandon Morrow, who gave up five runs -- four earned -- on eight hits over four full frames. Kevin Gregg recorded the final out in the eighth and pitched a spotless ninth for his 20th save.

Daniel Nava hit a two-run double for Boston, which snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 14-3 triumph in Friday's series opener. Sox starter John Lackey (9-5) allowed seven runs on eight hits and walked six in 4 2/3 innings to absorb the loss.

Boston finished 4-for-15 with runners in scoring position for the game, but left 12 men on base.

The Red Sox have beaten Toronto in six of eight matchups this year, as well as 12 of the past 17 overall meetings between the teams. Boston swept Toronto in three games at the Rogers Centre from April 26-28.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

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One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

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So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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