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07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of last-place teams seeking to end lengthy losing streaks begin a four-game series tonight at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium, where the slumping Royals hope to get well at the expense of the lowly Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore enters this evening's clash having lost five consecutive games and owns the worst record in the majors at 31-70. The Orioles have been especially bad since the All-Star break, compiling an awful 2-11 mark to begin the second half.
The Orioles' three most recent defeats came on the road at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, including a 5-0 setback in Wednesday's series finale. Baltimore mustered a mere three hits off rookie Brad Mills and three Jays relievers in suffering its 12th consecutive loss to Toronto this season.
"We've been through this all season against these guys," said Orioles manager Juan Samuel. "We gotta make better adjustments in games and try and get it done."
Baltimore's lack of offense spoiled a strong showing from starter Jeremy Guthrie (4-11), with the right-hander limiting the Blue Jays to one unearned run over seven innings in a hard-luck loss. Reliever Will Ohman gave up a three-run homer to Lyle Overbay as Toronto scored four times in the bottom of the eighth to break open the contest.
Kansas City will attempt to rebound from a forgettable last few days in which the club has lost four straight games and received atrocious pitching during the slide. The Royals allowed a whopping 42 runs over the first three defeats, then received another shaky performance out of Brian Bannister in yesterday's 6-4 loss to visiting Minnesota.
The Twins jumped out to a commanding 5-0 lead over the first four innings and held off a late Kansas City comeback attempt to complete a sweep of the three- game series.
"We gave them a [five] run lead and that helped their pitcher relax and do what he had to do," said Royals manager Ned Yost. "It just puts too much pressure on us when that happens."
Bannister (7-10) lost his fourth straight start after being tagged for five runs and 11 hits over the first six innings.
Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist had RBI singles during a two-run fifth inning for Kansas City, and Rick Ankiel pulled the Royals within 5-4 with a two-RBI base hit in the bottom of the eighth. Ankiel and Bloomquist each finished with a pair of hits in a losing cause.
Scott Podsednik went 2-for-5 in what turned out to be his final game in a Royals uniform. Kansas City traded the veteran outfielder to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a pair of minor-leaguers. Podsednik was batting .310 with 30 stolen bases and was riding a 15-game hitting streak at the time of the deal.
Although Royals pitchers have certainly had their problems as of late, the team has prevailed in each of Kyle Davies' last four starts and the inconsistent hurler has generally performed well over that stretch. The right- hander allowed seven runs over a combined 20 2/3 innings of work in recording three straight no-decisions to begin July, and enters tonight's test off his first victory in nearly two months.
Davies was reached for four runs and served up three homers in Saturday's matchup with the New York Yankees, but received a wealth of offensive support in Kansas City's 7-4 verdict over the defending world champions. He had not won in eight straight starts that followed a May 28 besting of Boston.
The 26-year-old hasn't won at home since April 26, though, and is just 1-4 with a 5.11 earned run average in eight trips to the Kauffman Stadium mound so far this season.
Davies will be attempting to duplicate a mid-May triumph over the Orioles in which he held tonight's opponent to two runs in six innings. He's 2-1 in four overall encounters with Baltimore, but has registered a poor 6.65 ERA over those games.
While Davies was able to end a lengthy winless drought his last time out, Baltimore's Brian Matusz has had trouble coming out on top all throughout his difficult 2009 campaign. The preseason Rookie of the Year candidate takes the hill tonight having lost 11 of 12 decisions since starting out the season with a pair of victories.
Matusz seemed to get back on track when he fired seven shutout innings to defeat Boston on July 4, but the highly-regarded lefty has gone 0-2 with a brutal 12.10 ERA in three starts since. He gave up three runs in five innings of a loss to Minnesota last Saturday, still a major improvement over a horrid 1 2/3-inning stint against Toronto in which the former first-round draft pick was shelled for six runs on five hits.
This will be the first career start against the Royals for Matusz, who's notched all three of his wins this season on the road.
These teams split a pair of meetings in Baltimore back in May, as well as a four-game series held at Kauffman Stadium last season.
<< Lowe tries to lead Braves to series win in D.C.
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves shoot for a series win this afternoon
when they play the rubber match of their three-game series with the Washington
Nationals at Nationals Park.
A 3-0 loser in Tuesday's opener, Atlanta bounced back to
<< Newcastle signs goalie Krul to four-year deal
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle signed goalkeeper Tim Krul to
a four-year contract on Thursday.
Krul, 22, joined Newcastle in 2005 and has made seven starts and played twice
as a substitute. His new deal runs through the 20
<< Top-seeded Youzhny reaches Gstaad quarters
Gstaad, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russian top seed Mikhail Youzhny
was a second-round winner Thursday at the Swiss Open Gstaad.
The world No. 14 Youzhny handled Swiss wild card Alexander Sadecky 7-5, 6-4 on
the clay courts at Roy
<< Lightning sign trio of defensemen
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning have re-signed defenseman
Vladimir Mihalik and inked free agent defensemen Mathieu Roy and Mike Vernace
to one-year, two-way contracts.
Mihalik appeared in four games for the Bolts last
Giants, Posey aim to keep rolling in finale with Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buster Posey tries to match a San Francisco rookie record
by hitting in his 22nd straight game this afternoon, while fellow rookie
Madison Bumgarner shoots for a fifth straight win when the San Francisco
Giants complete a fou
Indiana State seeking OC after Walters' departure >>
Terre Haute, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indiana State is conducting a fast search
to replace its offensive coordinator after Troy Walters resigned earlier this
week to accept the position of wide receivers coach at Texas A&M.
In his only seas
Padres send out Latos in hopes of taking set from Dodgers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mat Latos attempts to win his seventh straight decision
this evening, when the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers close out a
three-game series at Petco Park.
Latos, who had recently been sidelined with a strained le
Phils shoot for eighth straight win, sweep of D-Backs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Philadelphia Phillies wait for Roy Oswalt to
approve a trade to them, they will shoot for a three-game sweep of the Arizona
Diamondbacks tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
According to multiple reports, the Phillies
It’s time to see how the biggest NFL free agent signings will perform for their news teams. Some will work out and could be the difference that makes a difference in the win column.
We look at the best off-season signings and if they should influence your NFL betting this season. Julius Peppers – Peppers was the biggest prize available on the 2010 NFL free agent market and the Chicago Bears opened the bank to bring his talents to the south side.
Peppers is explosive, he can get around blockers and cause quarterbacks to lose their minds. We all remember the classic Peppers game last year against the Vikings where he hounded Brett Favre into his worst game of the season. Peppers joining the Bears could be the reason Favre retired for good Tuesday morning. In addition to Peppers, the Bears added Chester Taylor to back up Matt Forte, Forte didn’t have the same intensity in 2009 compared to 2008 and bringing in Taylor will challenge Forte to bring it every game or he’ll risk losing carries to Taylor.
Betting on the Bears is a good option this season because of Julius Peppers and to a lesser extent Taylor. Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens – The Cincinnati Bengals signed two former number one wide receivers to line up with Chad Ocho Cinco. Antonio Bryant had a huge season in 2008 catching 83 passes for over 1200 yards but regressed last season. Playing for the Tampa Bay Bucs last season was a large part of the regression, everyone was bad in TB last season.
Bryant should have a bounce back season if he can win the number two spot from Terrell Owens. If Bryant wins the number 2 WR spot, it will open up a completely new set of problems for the Bengals. If Owens is forced to the bench in favor of Bryant, his attitude will create trouble for Carson Palmer and head coach Marv Lewis. If Owens is the number two receiver, it means Bryant can’t live up to his past numbers and the Bengals are still limited in the passing game. NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. 2010 football betting lines for this can be found at this top online sportsbook. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense.
NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense. They signed away the Arizona Cardinals top linebacker Karlos Danby. In the past two seasons, Danby has totaled 228 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. The Dolphins are the forgotten team of the AFC East with the second longest odds to win the division but with the addition of Karlos Danby and a trade for WR Brandon Marshall makes the Miami Dolphins legitimate contenders in the AFC East and in the NFL’s Eastern Conference.
The Dolphins will make NFL wagering fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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