Stepanek avoids upset; moves into second round in San Jose

Tennis Betting Lines

02/10/2009 - San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fourth-seeded Czech Radek Stepanek avoided a huge upset Monday, but rallied to beat German qualifier Dominik Meffert, 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 in the first round at the $600,000 SAP Open, the first American stop on the 2009 ATP World Tour.

Stepanek, ranked 21st in the world and a finalist here last year, was in danger of going down to the 17-year-old Meffert, who is ranked 226th. But Stepanek came through when it counted by converting 8-of-10 break point chances.

Diminutive Belgian Christophe Rochus posted an upset by ousting seventh-seeded Russian Igor Kunitsyn 6-2, 7-6 (9-7) on the indoor hardcourt at HP Pavilion.

In other opening-round play, France's Florent Serra squeezed past Finn Jarkko Nieminen 7-5, 6-7 (1-7), 6-4, Tommy Haas downed fellow German Lars Poerschke, 6-1, 7-6 (10-8), Taylor Dent got by Bobby Reynolds, 6-3, 6-4 in a battle of Americans, and Japan's Kei Nishikori breezed by Luxembourg's Gilles Muller, 7-5, 6-2.

This week's top seeds are defending champion Andy Roddick, Argentine star Juan Martin del Potro and American James Blake. The American Roddick, who also titled here, back-to-back, in 2004 and 2005, will play Swede Michael Ryderstedt Tuesday night.

The final singles match Tuesday night will be an intriguing one with fifth- seeded American Mardy Fish tangling with Australian Lleyton Hewitt.

The 2009 San Jose titlist will pocket $93,900.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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